Discover more from Dem Primary Tracker 2020
Highlights You Missed: Sanders Scores, Impeachment Reigns, Debate Recap
AOC, OMAR TO ENDORSE SANDERS
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar plan to endorse Bernie Sanders this weekend at a campaign event. News of the endorsement comes just two weeks after Sanders suffered a heart attack in Las Vegas. The surprise endorsements are a political coup for Sanders, 78, who has been gradually sliding in the polls and faced growing questions about his age and health. Before Tuesday’s Democratic debate, he had been sidelined from the campaign trail for two weeks. The endorsements, along with a great debate performance, create a raft of momentum for the Sanders campaign.
UNEASE ABOUT IMPEACHMENT
The Iowa caucus is February 3, 2020, and is seen as a bellwether in the Democratic primary as it’s the first formalized contest on the calendar. A focus group by Engagious amongst Iowa swing voters expressed a range of unease about impeaching President Trump, from fears it will hurt the economy to frustrations that House Democrats are more invested in going after Trump than in helping people. Though small in number, 9 of the 11 participants raised their hands to say impeachment is a distraction from the issues they care most about — things like wages and unemployment, border security, bringing troops home, and health care costs and access.
SANDERS TAKES TRUMP IN IOWA
The Democrat Primary field has shifted since the last Emerson poll in March. Joe Biden is now tied with Elizabeth Warren for the lead with 23% , followed by Pete Buttigieg at 16% with Bernie Sanders dropping to fourth at 13%. No other candidate reaches above 5%. That said, Sanders is the only candidate beating Trump in head-to-head polling, so take that for what its worth. Methodology and poll details here.
DEBATE, PT. IV: QUICK RECAP
The fourth Democratic debate - of a scheduled 12 - took place this week on CNN, featuring a dozen candidates. New to the stage was billionaire hedge fund manager (and NeedtoImpeach founder) Tom Steyer. Though the three hour debate featured little in the way of new policy, there were a few important notes and highlights.
Joe Biden had his best debate performance. In a vacuum, this is why he’s still considered a front-runner.
Bernie Sanders was fantastic in his first major appearance post-heart attack.
Elizabeth Warren wore the target on her back, and capably fended off attacks from the other 11 participants.
Pete Buttigieg was again the adult in the room, and seems to be shifting to the center, which may be his best ‘lane.’
Beto O’Rourke, full of heart and good intention, received the brunt of Buttigieg’s attacks.
Amy Klobuchar stayed strong, displaying her midwestern centrism relative to the field.
Julián Castro was strong on gun violence, very assertive, but is not moving the needle.
Andrew Yang is still gaining momentum. He is considered a wild card, with very loyal followers.
Cory Booker, continuing to plead for peace, may be the best bet to be Vice President.
Tulsi Gabbard’s performance was again controversial; she is being called a Russian asset, among other things.
Tom Steyer was essentially a no-show. He’s invested $47 million for this?
DIGITAL SPEND UPDATE (30 DAYS)
Per ACRONYM, the chart above shows the Digital Spend (Google/Facebook) of all candidates that have spent money on those two platforms over the last 30 days. Trump is outspending all other candidates combined over the time period.
PELOSI TAKES IT TO TRUMP
Donald Trump tweeted a photo that he used in an attempt to mock House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The President and Pelosi had engaged in a contentious White House meeting held earlier that day on the unfolding crisis in Syria.When asked about the meeting at her weekly presser, Pelosi explained that the President likely lashed out at her because he didn't like her questions about his Russia-friendly foreign-policy positions, which she had characterized as all roads lead to Putin.
DAYS UNTIL 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: 381
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October 11 (Warren *almost* catches Biden; Hillary seeking Rematch?)
October 3 (Bernie’s Heart)
September 27 (Impeachment: Candidates In Their Own Words)
September 19(Polls, Polls, Polls)
September 13 (Debate 3 Power Rankings)
September 10 (Campaign Swag/Giveaway)
September 5 (Iowa Five Months Out)
August 29 (Back to School/Millennials + Gen Z)
August 22 (Inslee Drops Out; Steyer Spends Big)
August 15 (Gun Control Issue)
August 8 (The Impeachment Issue)
August 1 (Debates, Round 2)
July 25 (The Social Media Issue)
July 18 (The Fundraising Issue)
July 11 (Steyer In, Swalwell Out)
July 4 (The Ancestry Issue)
June 27 (Debates: Night 1 Power Rankings, Night 2 Preview)
June 20 (The Debate Issue)