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Average of Polls
The Economist Says: Here you will find the average of each candidate’s performance in all high-quality, national public opinion polls conducted so far as well as the probability of victory inferred from political betting.
REALITY CHECK: Pick a poll, throw a dart, grab a name out of a hat. Though there seems to be a ‘Big Four,’ there are as many permutations as there are polls. Kamala Harris, Andrew Yang, and Tulsi Gabbard have fervent followings and could see their poll fortunes spike in any given news cycle. These numbers are also not yet reflective of Michael Bloomberg’s $31 million ad buy and nascent campaign.
The National Poll
Morning Consult says: The latest data based on 8,102 survey interviews conducted between Nov. 21-24, 2019 show Joe Biden with a sizable lead, and only three candidates polling above 10%.
REALITY CHECK: Most voters still haven’t made up their minds. Biden’s name recognition makes him the favorite out of habit and familiarity. Suffolk University polling in early primary state New Hampshire showed the top four candidates (Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg) all within the 12-16% range. Emerson University polling of Iowa (first caucus state, February 3, 2020) shows a slight lead for Buttigieg with Biden a distant fourth.
2020 Candidate Media Spend
Axios Says: The 2020 election was already slated to be a record-breaking political advertising event. Now that Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer have both jumped into the race, advertising spend on the presidential race alone could exceed the $3 billion predicted by experts.
REALITY CHECK: Remember Meg Whitman? She spent $178 million in a gubernatorial race in 2010 - and she lost. Beto O’Rourke spent $79 million on a losing Senate campaign in 2018. And Ted Cruz spent $86 million in his attempt to be the Republican candidate in 2016, and he ended up losing to Donald Trump. So while political ad spending is one barometer, it is by no means indicative of voter preferences, nor influence over the electorate. It’s worth noting that, at this point, Bloomberg and Tom Steyer are each polling at 2%.
Who’s Getting Press?
New York Times says: This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.
REALITY CHECK: Being talked about isn’t always a good thing; it can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past. This metric also does not take into account less traditional methods of exposure - namely, social media; Andrew Yang and Bernie Sanders built their respective campaigns via word of mouth and grassroots momentum. Yang is only recently being recognized by some mainstream media organizations.
The Endorsement Scorecard
FiveThirtyEight Says: Party elites use endorsements to influence not only voters but also each other, hoping to get other powerful party members to rally behind the candidate they think would be most acceptable.
REALITY CHECK: Endorsements are a solid, though not foolproof, predictor. In 2008, more Democrats initially endorsed Hillary Clinton than Barack Obama. It is worth noting that both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz had more endorsements than Donald Trump in the lead-up to the 2016 election.
DPT2020 Site Launch
DAYS UNTIL 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: 341
DPT 2020 ARCHIVES
November 20 (Reality Check)
November 8 (Bloomberg Enters the Race)
November 3 (One Year from Today: Road to White House)
October 25 (Who is still in the race and why?)
October 18 (AOC endorses Bernie, Debate IV Recap)
October 11 (Warren *almost* catches Biden; Hillary seeking Rematch?)
October 3 (Bernie’s Heart)
September 27 (Impeachment: Candidates In Their Own Words)
September 19(Polls, Polls, Polls)
September 13 (Debate 3 Power Rankings)
September 10 (Campaign Swag/Giveaway)
September 5 (Iowa Five Months Out)
August 29 (Back to School/Millennials + Gen Z)
August 22 (Inslee Drops Out; Steyer Spends Big)
August 15 (Gun Control Issue)
August 8 (The Impeachment Issue)
August 1 (Debates, Round 2)
July 25 (The Social Media Issue)
July 18 (The Fundraising Issue)
July 11 (Steyer In, Swalwell Out)
July 4 (The Ancestry Issue)
June 27 (Debates: Night 1 Power Rankings, Night 2 Preview)
June 20 (The Debate Issue)